Confirmation Bias: A Manhattan Courtroom Litmus Test

How Opinions on Donald Trump's Case Highlight Our Cognitive Biases and How to Overcome Them

Source: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/stare-downs-shut-eye-trumps-every-move-criminal-trial-microscope-rcna148651

If you want a great example of Confirmation Bias, ask someone what they think is happening in a Manhattan Courtroom with Donald Trump. I get one of three responses as I talk to people. Let's explore Confirmation Bias and why this is a good litmus test.

What is Confirmation Bias?

Confirmation bias is a cognitive bias that involves favoring information that aligns with one's pre-existing beliefs or values while disregarding or devaluing information that contradicts them. This bias affects how people gather, interpret, and remember information, leading to skewed perceptions and reinforcing existing opinions.

Here are critical aspects of confirmation bias:

1. Selective Gathering of Information: Individuals tend to seek out information and sources that confirm their beliefs and avoid those that challenge them.

2. Selective Interpretation: People interpret ambiguous evidence as supporting their existing beliefs.

3. Selective Recall: People better remember information supporting their beliefs than information contradicting them.

4. Resistance to Contradictory Evidence: Individuals may discount or rationalize this evidence even when presented with solid evidence against their beliefs.

Confirmation bias can impact various areas of life, including decision-making, personal relationships, scientific research, and politics. It is essential to be aware of this bias to strive for more balanced and objective thinking.

How do you think it's going in NY?

So, let's go back to Manhatten - assuming you have been following the case, let's answer the following two questions:

1. Do you believe that, for any reason, Trump should not be president again?

2. Do you believe, for any reason, Trump committed a crime in this case?

If you find yourself answering YES to both or NO to both, you may exhibit confirmation bias. If you can answer YES to one and NO to the other, then you will probably do a deeper investigation. Avoiding confirmation bias requires conscious effort and strategies to ensure a balanced and objective approach to information. 

Here are some effective methods:

1. Seek Contradictory Information:

   • Actively look for information and perspectives that challenge your existing beliefs.

   • Engage with sources and viewpoints different from your own.

2. Be Critical of Your Own Beliefs:

   • Question the basis of your beliefs and consider the possibility that they might be wrong.

   • Reflect on why you hold certain opinions and whether they are based on solid evidence.

3. Use Objective Evidence:

   • Base your conclusions on empirical evidence and data rather than personal opinions or anecdotes.

   • Evaluate the quality and reliability of the sources of your information.

4. Diversify Your Sources:

   • Read from various reputable sources to get a well-rounded view of the topic.

   • Avoid echo chambers where everyone shares the same perspective.

5. Consider Alternative Explanations:

   • When evaluating information, consider multiple explanations and hypotheses.

   • Weigh the evidence for and against each possibility.

6. Engage in Debates and Discussions:

   • Participate in discussions with people who have different viewpoints.

   • Listen actively and be open to changing your mind based on new evidence.

7. Be Aware of Cognitive Biases:

   • Educate yourself about various cognitive biases and how they can affect your thinking.

   • Regularly check if confirmation bias or other biases might be influencing your judgments.

8. Use Structured Decision-Making Tools:

   • Employ decision-making frameworks that require systematic evaluation of evidence.

   • Tools like decision trees or pro/con lists can help you consider all relevant information.

9. Practice Intellectual Humility:

   • Accept that you might not have all the answers and that your understanding can evolve.

   • Be willing to revise your beliefs in light of new evidence.

10. Consult Experts and Peer Reviews:

    • Seek insights from experts in the field and consider peer-reviewed studies.

    • Peer review ensures that knowledgeable individuals have evaluated the information.

By consciously applying these strategies, you can minimize the influence of confirmation bias and make more balanced, well-informed decisions. 

Of course, some of this might make you feel uncomfortable. Challenging your existing views will do that to you, mainly if you have been very vocal on this subject, and you risk looking inconsistent. Of course, you may not feel the need to do any of this because what you believe is true is true, or that could just be a story you are telling yourself.