History’s Lessons: Yellow Flags, Red Flags, and the Stories We Tell
How cognitive biases shape our understanding of the past—and what we can learn from it
Is history, as Henry Ford supposedly said, “bunk,” or, as George Santayana famously warned, “doomed to be repeated by those who fail to learn its lessons?” Or perhaps it’s a mix of both. Embracing this middle ground allows us to make better decisions by learning from history while recognizing that the past doesn’t always predict the future.
What is History?
History studies past events, people, and societies, offering context for how the world has evolved. It examines actions, decisions, and consequences, helping us understand human behavior, cultural shifts, and the forces that have shaped civilizations.
Yet history is a record and an interpretation, pieced together from documents, artifacts, and oral traditions. While history can teach us valuable lessons, patterns don’t always repeat—significantly when context changes. Even under seemingly identical conditions, outcomes can differ.
What Shapes Our Understanding of History?
Cognitive biases and psychological tendencies significantly influence how humans perceive the past. Recognizing these biases can help us approach history more critically.
Rhyme-as-Reason Effect
The best example? “What sounds good must be true.”
This bias, or fluency bias, makes people more likely to believe a statement if it rhymes or sounds pleasing. For instance, “An apple a day keeps the doctor away” feels credible simply because it’s catchy.
Cognitive Fluency: If something is easy to process, understand, or remember, we’re more likely to accept it as accurate.
Occam’s Razor: When faced with competing explanations, the simplest one—requiring the fewest assumptions—is often correct.
While useful, these principles are only helpful diagnostically. How, then, should we think about history or even recent events?
Ask Four Questions
To avoid distortions in reasoning, consider these four questions:
1. Are we looking for the simplest answer?
Simplifying complex situations can lead to errors when we force straightforward explanations onto uncertainty.
2. Are we afraid of ambiguity?
Mental shortcuts, while useful, often prioritize simplicity over accuracy to reduce discomfort with complexity.
3. Are we seeing patterns where none exist?
Humans naturally seek order, even in randomness, which can lead to misinterpretations and false causality.
4. Was it just luck?
People overlook the laws of chance, preferring tidy, causal explanations—even when inaccurate.
A Helpful Analogy: History’s Flags
In Formula 1 racing, yellow and red flags signal caution and danger. A yellow flag warns drivers of potential hazards ahead—like debris or accidents—urging them to proceed carefully. A red flag stops the session entirely, indicating immediate danger.
History, too, has yellow and red flags.
Yellow Flags: Lessons to learn from. Proceed with caution, but recognize that context changes outcomes.
Red Flags: Immediate danger—warnings that demand we stop, reassess, and change course.
I believe most of history consists of yellow flags—cautionary tales to guide us, not doom us. Those who always see history as a red flag are often catastrophizing—expecting the worst, even when unlikely. Catastrophizing is a cognitive distortion that inflates threats to make a point or justify fear.
Lessons for Life and Work
Whether in careers, business, or history, context constantly changes. It’s unlikely the future will mirror the past exactly. However, learning from history’s lessons can only make us better prepared.
If you believe history offers only one narrative, perhaps you’re telling yourself a story—or, as they say, you might be a history teacher.